P/E ratios alone do not accurately measure stock market valuation as they fail to capture future expectations and cash-based intrinsic value.

The balance sheet is a critical component of intrinsic value and often overlooked by investors.

The current market conditions are vastly different from the dot-com bubble, with companies such as Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft having strong net cash positions and future free cash flow expectations.

We continue to be bullish on the areas of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth.

Inflation remains a significant concern for 2025, with potential upside risks from tariffs and housing prices.

Improving labor market indicators, including declining unemployment rates and rising wage growth, suggest economic strength but complicate the Fed's rate-cutting plans.

Market expectations have shifted, pricing in fewer rate cuts in 2025 and potential rate increases, reflecting a resilient economy and sticky inflation.

Multiple contraction may finally hit the S&P 500, leading to a 25% decline.

Michael Kramer, aka Mott Capital, leads Reading The Markets, with a focus on macro investing themes. He uses technical analysis and options activity to identify market entry and exit points.